THE NEXT CHIEF MINISTER OF WEST BENGAL by Sounak Bhaduri
- Sounak Bhaduri
- 5 days ago
- 5 min read
I stick my neck out to answer the million-dollar question: Who will become the next Chief Minister of West Bengal (WB)?
To win the heart of the electorate, the new chief minister (CM) will have to understand that the regional identity is intertwined with the national fabric. Therefore, the aspirants for the top post, including the incumbent, are humbly reminded that Bengal is the land of Kaali, not Ram—embodies a civilisational ethos that venerates feminine power. Ma, Shakti, Kaali, Durga—call what you want to—are not merely deities, they are the force that drives millions of Hindus, embedded in their cultural ethos, part of their day-to-day life. So, no prize for guessing, a woman leader enjoys an advantage.
The incumbent is a woman, who portrays herself as formidable and fearless, has an edge. It is no coincidence that most vocal and vociferous women MPs are from Mamta Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (AITC). It is, Therefore, advised that the challengers, particularly the BJP, field a woman for the top post known for her strength of conviction.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the incumbent will become the CM for the fourth time. She is facing an anti-incumbency wave. Didi, as she is popularly called, remains a street fighter, but the CM for nearly 15 years doesn’t fight her political battles in the street, mere theatrics won’t take her far.
The contender for the top post should be able to use the most potent political tool—technology to good effect. Bengal’s rural electorate is digitally connected—over 82% of rural households now have smartphone and internet access. Information flows freely. And smartphones bring about change in heart by effective online electioneering. In this election, curated content— contextual, localised storytelling— will outlast viral gimmicks. The bhadralok discourse is increasingly seeping into villages.
Her recent intervention and confrontations in the Enforcement Directorate investigation with the aid of the local police, is seen as a sign of desperation rather than an act of an empowered leader. Though it was a good show, spectacular even by Didi’s standard, was perceived by her rural support base as acts of defiance and strength, she needs to reinvent herself, for many feels the Bengal Tigress is now merely a patch of what she was in the past.
Her most loyal constituency—women voters—is restless for her track record of woman protection is dismal, she even indulged in victim blaming, and has suggested that girls should not go out late at night. BJP is going to bring out these contradictions in her narrative in a big way, and people at large, and women in particular, will not require much convincing in this regard.
Further, the Bengali women understand that welfare schemes alone are not a differentiator. They now have access to various online media campaigns, they are well aware of what is happening outside of WB, other states have shown that 'outsiders' can offer competitive, are at an advantage with superior welfare architectures—as seen recently in Bihar.
The women, particularly in rural Bengal, seek safety and dignity, both of which appear eroded under political hooliganism, especially as elections are approaching, they have a field day, and seem to get a political permit to create ruckus. Mamata might be the worst victim of it, now people say is using it for political gains. In any case, welfare without security has diminishing returns.
Historically, the Left maintained a functional relationship with the union government and partnered with the UPA and, in the process, gained huge political clout in the national capital. This influence was translated into benefits for WB by various policy interventions, fiscal leverage, and institutional initiatives.
While the incumbent thinks her survival is hedged on her confrontational abilities with the BJP, this hostility has cost the state dearly; has weakened the bargaining power, slowed investment inflows and strained state finances. There are ample examples that will be the mainstay of the BJP campaign.
In this context, a double-engine government carries a lot of attraction. How good it would have been if Modi and Mamata were friends or, to put it differently, a Yogi-like CM in WB. Voters know excessive external conflict often conceals internal infighting. And encourages gunda-raj, impoverishes people and stagnates development.
Mamata is perceived as an ageing matriarch, her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, is the rising star in the party, commands organisational influence, youth appeal, and has strategic acumen. Together, the duo still seems to have the support base and make a formidable electoral machine—bolstered by booth-level dominance, identity narratives, and the “outsider” counter-mobilisation strategy.
Meanwhile, the Congress party and the Left remain mere fence sitters. A structured gatbandhan, grounded in realistic seat-sharing rather than ideological hangover could position them as kingmakers or at least spoilers like Prashant Kishore in Bihar. For that, they too must identify a unifying, popular matriarchal figure with moral compass that the electorate can emotionally identify with.
The next CM is to play the Bangladeshi infiltration card very well as it’s no longer a fringe concern—the state security, the demographic anxiety, and the economic stress it causes are major issues in this election. And don’t mistake it for merely the BJP propaganda. The future CM will have to articulate a clear plan as to how, most likely she, or he, is going to deal with it firmly. It’s non-negotiable, even for AITC candidates, if they wish to retain the Hindu votes, the urban professionals, the intellectuals, and the politically aware youth who understand its long-term consequences.
Compounding this challenge are repetitive corruption scandals—particularly the teacher recruitment and the healthcare scams, have resulted in loss of livelihoods. The next CM must present a credible roadmap for educational reform, especially in a state that once set the benchmarks in liberal education, English proficiency, and democratic values.
The contender for the top post should be able to use the most potent political tool—technology and digitalisation to good effect. Though incumbent still enjoys deep resonance in rural Bengal, this loyalty is no longer insulated from the influence of the outsiders. Bengal’s rural electorate is digitally connected—over 82% of rural households now have smartphone and internet access. Information flows freely. And smartphones bring about change in heart by effective online electioneering. The bhadralok discourse is increasingly seeping into villages.
The next CM must, therefore, be able to carry out political-social engineering by use of technology and hyperlocal narrative tailor made for the state, with local imperatives. While the ‘outsiders’ possess superior technological and data capabilities, they lack organic cultural intimacy. In this election, curated content— contextual, localised storytelling--will outlast viral gimmicks. The BJP has mastered the art. The ‘outsiders’ have to find many local Prashant-Kishor-kind of political strategists.
This brings us to the real game-changers: Gen Z. Lately, they have been at the eye of the storm that caused political upheavals and forced regime change on the either side of WB, upended political uncertainties. Bengal’s Gen Z is heterogeneous, therefore divided, but unified by aspiration of a good life. For them, unemployment and corruption are existential threats. They don’t want a future where they are forced out of the state to seek greener pastures. They are for a system that rewards merit, a governance free of nepotism, scams, and stagnation. A dual-engine governance model appears better aligned with their aspirations.
The next CM will have to engage with rural Bengal through a simple, powerful emotional anchor on the lines—Amader Bangla, Sonar Bangla. This translates into three core promises: a credible economic and industrial roadmap securing the next generation’s future. Educational renewal, reversing Bengal’s intellectual decline.
Also, the Yogi Model has struck a chord across demographics—from urban to rural, youth to elderly, in WB, for dismantling of criminal-political nexuses in Uttar Pradesh. Bengal, too, requires such, if I may use the word—deworming. This requires raw political will, administrative coordination, firm law-and-order enforcement, and better alignment between state and Centre.
If a leader, a woman has a much better chance, can convincingly communicate the resolve, combining cultural imperatives with institutional strength, better use of technology, is all set to be the next CM of WB.